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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.