Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.