Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the positive results have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
